Analysis on the situation of pharmaceutical foreign trade in the first quarter of 2011
In the first quarter of this year, the world economy continued to recover, the global pharmaceutical trade was heating up, the domestic pharmaceutical market developed rapidly, and the import demand for high-end pharmaceutical products increased sharply. my country's pharmaceutical trade achieved rapid growth in phases. The pharmaceutical foreign trade import and export volume reached 16.224 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase. An increase of 41.07%, of which exports were 10.119 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 38.13% year-on-year, and imports were 6.105 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 46.23% year-on-year. The growth rates of imports and exports were better than expected.
At present, the competitive advantages of my country’s low- and mid-range pharmaceutical products are still relatively obvious, and they have been further strengthened in the process of the global pharmaceutical industry’s transfer to developing countries. In addition, my country’s pharmaceutical market has achieved remarkable results, and its exports to emerging pharmaceutical markets have developed rapidly, prompting my country’s original The export market for advantageous pharmaceutical products has further expanded.
one. API products are ushering in a new growth stage, the market growth of developed countries is stable, and the emerging pharmaceutical market is developing rapidly
The expansion of global generic drug market demand and industrial transfer provide opportunities and space for China's APIs to further expand into the international market. In the first quarter, my country's API exports were 5.363 billion US dollars, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year, realizing the export of APIs since the financial crisis The largest quarterly year-on-year increase. In terms of markets, exports to developed markets such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan rose steadily, with exports of US$1.414 billion, US$683 million, and US$311 million, respectively, with growth rates of 26.31%, 12.82%, and 3.23%, respectively, to the above three markets. The overall increase was 19.13%. Exports to major emerging pharmaceutical markets such as India, ASEAN, and Brazil were US$7.78, 5.03, and 158 million, up 39.15%, 45.64%, and 55.82% year-on-year, respectively. The total exports of the above three regions increased from 24.69% to 26.9%. The pharmaceutical market trade area is increasingly driving the export of raw materials and has become the regional market with the most development potential. At the same time, statistics show that the growth of the overall export volume of raw materials in the first quarter was mainly driven by export volume. The export volume increased by 39.53% and the export price fell by 5.89%. This further shows that the domestic fierce market competition has not changed, and the export phenomenon is prominent. In terms of main varieties, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities was weak. The export volume of 10 key products such as heparin sodium, vitamin C, vitamin E, and penicillin industrial salt increased by 7.23%, while the export price dropped by 16.51% and the export value dropped by 10.48%. There is a serious situation of homogeneous competition. On the other hand, the export of some APIs, such as macrolide antibiotics, hormones, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline APIs, has improved significantly, and the export prices have risen. The average prices have risen by 30.39%, 19.84%, and 31.24%, respectively. 40.05%, the export value increased by 100.35%, 23.69%, 60.72%, and 37.1% respectively.
two. The export of high-end pharmaceutical products is differentiated, the export growth of preparations has declined, and the export situation of medical equipment is optimistic.
In the first quarter, the export of high-end pharmaceutical products represented by western medicine preparations and diagnosis and treatment equipment diverged. Driven by the strong export of AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., the export of western medicine preparations increased by 23.71% in the first quarter. The export growth rate has declined compared with the same period last year. AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. among the foreign-funded enterprises took advantage of my country's strong raw material drug industry to transfer preparation production to China. In the first quarter, it added 73.5 million U.S. dollars in preparation exports, most of which were exported to Australia and quickly jumped to the export of western medicine preparations. First, it became the main driving force for the growth of preparations exports in the first quarter. If AstraZeneca's new export factors are not taken into account, the preparations exports in the first quarter only increased by 2%, which was a drop of nearly 1/3 compared with the same period last year. The export of preparations by state-owned and private enterprises still focuses on Asian, African and South American markets, and underdeveloped markets account for 80% of exports. In the high-end market, due to high entry barriers, weak corporate R&D capabilities for new drugs, fewer products with independent intellectual property rights, insufficient generic drug innovation capabilities, and many low-end products, it is difficult to effectively open the mainstream markets in Europe and the United States, and future development will still have great challenges. Certainty.
The export of medical equipment has a strong growth. The export in the first quarter was US$1.423 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.82%, accounting for 44.07% of the export of medical devices. Export growth is manifested in two aspects. First, the proportion of high-end medical equipment has increased, and the export market for products such as MRI equipment, X-ray tomography, and color ultrasonic diagnostic equipment has expanded, driving the increase in the export volume of high-end products, thereby driving the overall medical equipment The average export price has increased by 54.90%; second, the major export markets have grown across the board, and emerging markets have developed particularly rapidly. Among them, exports to the EU, the United States, and Japan have increased by 48.25%, 28.82%, and 49.38%, respectively. The growth rates of markets such as India and Russia have reached 68.21%, 97.03%, 92.43%, 104.11%, and 140.93% respectively. The global market’s recognition of Chinese medical equipment is gradually increasing; in addition, the export of medical equipment has a leading position in the original foreign-funded products. Decline, the proportion of state-owned private enterprises increased significantly. In the first quarter, the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises in the export of medical equipment dropped from 73.66% in the same period to 63.93%, and the proportion of state-owned private enterprises rose by nearly 10 percentage points to 35.98%, especially private enterprises. The export growth rate reached 134.94%, but low concentration and small export scale are still the main problems facing state-owned and private enterprises.
three. Traditional medical dressings and disposable consumables are affected by rising raw material prices, and export prices have risen sharply
In the first quarter, the export volume of traditional medical dressings and disposable consumables in my country increased significantly by 103.58% and 45.25% respectively, while the export volume did not change significantly. The most important factor for the sharp increase in the export of medical dressings was the impact of high cotton prices. The export prices rose sharply. Among them, the prices of cotton wool, gauze, and bandages rose by 39.12%, the prices of cotton surgical towels rose by 46.71%, and bleached and unbleached cotton. The price of medical gauze rose by 68.4% and 136.77% respectively. Combined with global customs data (GTI) analysis, in the first two months of this year, the price of cotton medical dressing products in my country increased sharply without significant impact on global market demand. The volume and price of Chinese medical dressing products in the EU and North America markets have risen and continued to maintain With steady growth, the market share also increased by 7 and 11 percentage points, reaching 58.11% and 56.44%, still occupying an absolute market share, and the competitive advantage is extremely obvious. However, it is worth noting that ASEAN, India, Mexico and other countries are gradually entering the European and American medical dressing market, especially for the European Union market. The growth rates of Thailand and India have reached 176.08% and 60.95% respectively, although the market share is less than 5 %, but the competitive situation has gradually emerged. At the same time, some of the original European Union countries such as the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands have gradually withdrawn from the medical dressing market.
Disposable consumables have generally increased significantly in major global markets. The Asian, EU, North American, and African markets increased by 48.50%, 29.20%, 59.13%, and 33.42% respectively, and the average export price increased by 23.85%.
Four. The domestic pharmaceutical market is developing rapidly, and the proportion of high-end products continues to increase
In the first quarter, my country’s pharmaceutical import market continued to maintain substantial growth, with an import value of US$6.105 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.23%. Pharmaceutical imports showed the following characteristics: First, the concentration of source countries continued to increase. Imports accounted for 75% of total pharmaceutical imports, with a total increase of 50.78%; second, imports from countries with fast-developing pharmaceutical industries such as India and Brazil increased steadily, with increases of 35.45% and 163.81%, respectively. Western medicine raw materials and Western patent medicines were The main types of imports; the third is the increase in the proportion of high-end pharmaceutical products, which is manifested in the increase in the import price and proportion of western patent medicines, and the decline in the proportion of raw materials and equipment products.
At present, China is entering an aging society, the domestic medical system is improving day by day, the domestic pharmaceutical market is expected to expand, and the demand for foreign pharmaceuticals will maintain a relatively rapid growth. However, due to the large gap between exports and imports, it is difficult to achieve a short-term trade deficit. Obviously reversed.
five. Pharmaceutical exports in the second quarter will turn to moderate growth, and the year-on-year growth rate will decline
Due to changes in the global pharmaceutical industry structure, the global pharmaceutical market is changing. In order to reduce costs, global pharmaceutical production and R&D have begun to shift to developing countries including China, India, Israel, and Brazil, and the proportion of global generic drug sales has increased. In addition, the economic recovery of developed countries and the rapid development of emerging pharmaceutical markets have effectively increased the demand for the global pharmaceutical market. The above factors will continue to promote the continuous growth of global pharmaceutical trade. my country's foreign-funded pharmaceutical companies have gained further development space, and their import and export volume will continue to increase significantly. In terms of export prices, due to the fact that global inflation has not been effectively curbed, my country's pharmaceutical production costs have risen, and export prices gradually reflect cost factors. It is an inevitable trend. The monthly data of some bulk API products have shown that export prices have begun to slowly rise. Therefore, in the medium and long term, my country's pharmaceutical products still have room for further expansion in terms of market growth and export prices.
In terms of unfavorable factors, due to the recent excessive growth of pharmaceutical exports, some products, especially API products, will experience a phased market surplus, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the increase in exports.
Combining the above factors, it is expected that pharmaceutical exports in the second quarter will continue to remain optimistic, but the growth rate will decline.